Published in The Independent on Thursday, 5 February 2015.
Economy counts unprecedented loss
BSS
30-day of blockade
The economic loss to the countrywide blockade in the past 30 days appeared to be much higher than the loss the country incurred to shutdowns and blockades in six months in 2013, according to data available from the country’s leading chamber and trade organisation, reports BSS.
Data released by Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) showed that the country lost Tk 36,445 crore in 16 days of blockade. Based on the figure, the total economic loss during the past 30 days of blockade, which began on January 5, would be around Tk 68,000 crore, which is alarmingly higher than the loss to the political destruction in 2013.
The leading think-tank, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), estimated that the losses during the shutdowns and blockade from July to December, 2013 stood at Tk 50,000 crore.
According to the DCCI, loss to the apparel sector in the past one month would stand at Tk 25,275 crore as this sector already lost Taka 13,480 in the first 16 days of continuous blockade and repeated hartals.
The political unrest caused a huge loss to the transport sector, which would be no less than Tk 9,000 crore for the past one month. The agriculture sector also bore a big loss, which might be Tk 8,641 crore for the same period when the loss to housing and tourism, two major losing sectors, would be Tk 7,500 crore and Tk 6,300 crore respectively.
The estimates are based on the DCCI data, which put the loss to these two sectors in 16 days of blockade at Tk 4,000 crore and Tk 3,360 crore accordingly.
DCCI President Hossain Khaled, however, told the media that the loss would be much higher if it (the loss) is calculated taking into cognizance the 25 per cent of the total industrial production.
The DCCI put the figure taking into account the loss of 16 sectors, including readymade garment, transport, agriculture, tourism and insurance.
Against the backdrop of the looming fallouts from the political unrest, Finance Minister AMA Muhith early this week said the growth forecast for the current 2014-15 financial year (FY15) would be revised down because of the ceaseless blockade and recurrent hartals by the BNP-Jamaat alliance, aiming at hindering all development activities and crippling the economic prospects.
The government targeted 7.3 per cent GDP growth for the current fiscal year, after achieving the highest 6.46 per cent growth in 2010-11. The World Bank (WB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and many other economic think-tanks forecast higher economic growth in the next two years provided that the political situation remains stable.
Apart from the direct loss to the formal economic sector, the blockade poses a big threat to the country’s image on the global market, said Atiqul Islam, the president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA).
He also apprehended that the export target of $26.89 billion, set for FY15, would remain far from achievement if the political instability persists.