Published in The Independent on Wednesday, 1 January 2014.
Hope for the Best
Mir Mostafizur Rahaman
As Bangladesh rings in 2014 on Wednesday, countrymen can only hope that the new year may heal the scars of 2013, which was one of the worst years in the country’s history.
Though both Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her arch political rival Khaleda Zia wished prosperity for the countrymen, their words would ring hollow if they fail to reach a compromise to resolve the on-going political crisis.
This politics of confrontation and violence remain the biggest challenges to be addressed in 2014 like in the year gone by. Never in its 43 years of history, politics had proved as lethal to the country’s interest as it did in 2013. The year saw a political tsunami ravaging the economy and throwing the lives of millions out of gear.
The reckless attitude of politicians has halted the growth momentum of the country just at the moment when it was on course to be elevated to a middle-income country. As a result, the country is stepping into the New Year under the shadows of political violence, economic uncertainty and insecurity, all of which are hurting the country’s potential to emerge as a tiger in the global stage.
Talking to The Independent, economists, business leaders and intellectuals expressed deep concern over the future of the country’s economy in case the political crisis goes on any longer.
The ADP implementation was the lowest in the last five years with only 17 per cent, remittance slid by 5 per cent in the last five months, credit flow to the private sector declined to only 11 per cent (up to October) as against over 20 per cent in the previous year, domestic investment registration saw a dip by 40 per cent than the previous year, the revenue mobilisation by the National board of Revenue (NBR) decreased by Tk. 6,000 crore compared to its target.
The worst sufferer was the RMG sector, the biggest foreign exchange earner for the country. Export orders during the current season were slashed by 40 per cent. According to RMG entrepreneurs, the net loss due to the political turmoil in the last two months would be over Tk 7,000 crore.
Due to the massive slowdown in business activities, the default loans in the banking system has crossed over Tk. 55,000 crore, the largest since Bangladesh gained independence in 1971.
According to an estimate by CPD executive director Dr Mustafizur Rahman, the GDP loss due to the political turmoil would be 0.90 per cent.
On the other hand, global lenders like the World bank, ADB and the IMF have already predicted a downturn in the coutry’s GDP growth by lowering it to the range of 5 to 5.7 per cent, against the government’s target of 7.5 per cent.
The political crisis over the mode of the poll-time government intensified in 2013 as both the ruling and opposition parties remained firm in their resspective stands. This resulted in 70 days of hartals and blockades across the country in which over 500 people lost their lives.
However, according to unofficial statistics, the number is well over 2,000.
The outgoing year saw the rise of two new platforms: the Ganajagaran Mancha and the Hefazat-e-Islam. The Ganajagaran Mancha was launched by youths immediately after the court verdict that awarded life-sentence to Jamaat leader Abdul Quader Mollah.
The youths assembled at the Shabagh square in the city to demand capital punishment for Mollah and other war-criminals, and subsequently, the parliament amended the ICT Act by incorporating the provision for appeal by the prosecution against the ICT verdict.
After the amendment, the prosecution filed an appeal against the ICT verdict and the SC awarded death sentence to Mollah. Later, on December 12, Mollah was executed. It was the first time that a war-criminal was executed here.
According to the Ain O Salish Kendra, a human rights body, as many as 848 clashes took place in 2013, centring the verdicts of war crimes trials and political disputes over the 10th parliamentary election. The clashes claimed 507 lives, including 15 policemen and two BGB troopers, and left 22,407 people injured.
Since the announcement of the schedule of the 10th parliamentary election on November 25, over 100 people have died across the country during blockade programmes called by the opposition.
Of them, 75 died between November 25 and December 15, while the rest were killed in clashes over the execution of Mollah from December 10 to 13, the report adds.
The collapse of Rana Plaza building in Savar, which claimed the lives of 1,134 garment workers, was the most disastrous event of the year. It sparked a worldwide debate on the standard of local RMG compliance.