The Conference of Parties 26 (COP26) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Glasgow will not only be the largest global climate summit but also the most crucial global event in recent years. The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in August 2021 has reiterated, with enough scientific evidence, the certainty and severity of the impacts of climate change. The findings of the report are much bleaker than the last one, published in 2014, and show how the world has continued to emit GHGs at a higher rate. Projecting various scenarios, the AR6 highlights the world’s current status with regard to the targets for reducing global warming and its implications. The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation and the severity of droughts and heatwaves due to the Earth’s increased warming will soon be insurmountable. Moreover, some of the consequences of climate change, such as melting ice sheets, rising seas, loss of species and acidic oceans, will be irreversible.
In this context, the COP26 is the last chance to reach an effective climate deal and obtain meaningful commitments from countries to avert the climate disaster. The significance of the COP26 is rooted in the commitments of the COP21 held in Paris in 2015. At the COP21, participating countries had agreed to bring down their carbon emission levels to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius; adapt to the climate impacts; and make funds available to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement, which is a legally binding commitment. Agreeing to reduce emissions voluntarily, the countries set their emissions reduction targets in their national plans, called ‘Nationally Determined Contributions’ (NDCs), specifying by how much they would reduce their emissions. Further, the countries agreed to review and present their updated reduction plans every five years. As of 28 September 2021, 89 countries have submitted new NDC targets and four have proposed new NDC targets; 71 have not updated their targets.
Bangladesh, currently a least developed country (LDC) but set to graduate from this status by 2026, has made significant economic and social progress since its independence in 1971. In FY2019, before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, it had an eight-percent growth in GDP. Driven mainly by agricultural production, remittances and exports, Bangladesh’s high economic growth has also led to improvements in socioeconomic indicators. Some of these include reduction in poverty and mortality, better access to safe drinking water, higher life expectancy, literacy, per capita food intake, and an increase in women’s participation in the labour market. At the same time, however, its GDP growth is subject to various vulnerabilities such as inequality, low job creation, poverty, and lack of economic diversity. Additionally, Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change, and regularly experiences floods, cyclones, storm surges, droughts, and other extreme climate events. It also faces the risk of sea-level rise due to global warming. Thus, the COP26 is especially significant for Bangladesh, like it is for other climate-vulnerable countries. To address the climate crisis from the perspective of such nations, Bangladesh has five specific agendas.
First, the highest emitting countries must commit to deeper emission cuts by 2030 to achieve the target of keeping the rise in global temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Many countries have already increased their target levels through higher reduction of GHG emissions, and some have reiterated their commitments for emissions reduction. By 2030, the United States has made commitments to reduce GHG emissions by at least 50–52 percent from its 2005 levels, Japan by 46 percent from its 2013 levels, Canada by 40–45 percent from its 2005 levels, the European Union (EU) by at least 55 percent from the 1990 levels, and the UK by 75 percent. China, too, has reiterated its commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, while South Korea plans to be carbon neutral by 2050.
Second, the mobilisation of climate finance should be stepped up, so that vulnerable countries can make higher investments on reducing the risk of climate change by better adaptation. Funds are also needed for investment in renewable energy and making such energy accessible to the poor at an affordable price. Unfortunately, the pledges of the developed countries to mobilise US$100 billion per year by 2020 remains unfulfilled. According to estimates of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), developed countries provided and mobilised a total of US$79.6 billion as climate finance for developing countries.[4] At the 76th General Assembly meeting of the UN, the US committed to increase its climate finance by 2024, and several other developed countries have also made pledges to increase their contributions. However, new pledges are required to ensure a minimum of US$500 billion during 2020–24. Access to climate funds is particularly challenging for Bangladesh, since a significant part of this fund comes in the form of loans and non-concessional instruments.
Third, Bangladesh needs more funds for adaptation. At present, climate financing is biased towards mitigation, which is an approach used largely by the developed emitting countries. Mitigation funds comprise 75 percent of the total climate finance, and are used for energy and transport sectors. Thus, LDCs, which are the least responsible for creating the problem of climate change but the worst affected by its negative impacts, are not receiving sufficient funding to make adaptation changes. While Bangladesh has managed to successfully adapt to various climate-related challenges with limited resources and often with indigenous technologies, given the enormity of the problem, the country needs to enhance its adaptive capacity and strengthen resilience. This will require higher resources and technology transfer to make a green transition. Further, the Covid-19 pandemic has put added pressure on climate-vulnerable countries, increasing inequality not only within countries but also between them. Without enhanced financing, these countries will face difficulty in recovering from the fallout of the pandemic and rebuilding their economies better and greener.
Fourth, Bangladesh expects the details of the Paris Rulebook to be finalised at the COP26, to ensure the accountability of the activities of all countries. Three important components of the Rulebook are: a) the guidance to facilitate global stocktaking for assessing collective progress on the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement; b) the establishment of a five-year timeframe for NDCs, instead of a ten-year timeframe, so that the progress can be tracked more frequently and measures can be taken accordingly; and c) the finalisation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which sets the rules for carbon markets in a way that financial support for adaptation is made available and human rights are safeguarded. This is important, since credible and tangible emissions reduction is critical for environmental integrity.
Fifth, the mechanism of loss and damage should be established. At the COP19 in November 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for Loss and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts was established. The objective was to address loss and damage associated with impacts of climate change in vulnerable developing countries. The demand for addressing such loss and damage has been a longstanding one, despite developed countries resisting the idea. Article 8 of the Paris Agreement reaffirmed the WIM for Loss and Damage as the main vehicle under the UNFCCC process for addressing the issue. However, no real progress has yet to be made.
For long now, Bangladesh has been giving a voice to the needs of climate-vulnerable countries at the global level. As the chair of the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF), the prime minister of Bangladesh is advocating for not only emissions reduction by all nations but also more support to the climate-vulnerable countries. At the domestic level, Bangladesh has charted out various policies including the Comprehensive Climate Change Action Plan, the National Adaptation Plan, and the Delta Plan—to tackle climate-change-related challenges in the short, medium and long terms. In 2015, it made commitments for emissions reduction as part of its NDCs, to reduce GHG emissions by five percent by 2030 in three sectors—power, transport, and industry. In its new NDCs, it has included two more sectors, i.e. waste and land use. With additional finance and technology from external sources, Bangladesh will be able to reduce GHG emissions by 15 percent. In its revised NDC, Bangladesh has committed to reduce GHG emissions by 6.73 percent by 2030 in five sectors: power, transport, industry, waste, and land use. With additional finance and technology from external sources, Bangladesh aims to reduce GHG emissions by 15.12 percent. However, Bangladesh’s CO2 emissions are negligible, with only a 0.28 percent share in the annual share of global CO2 emissions as of 2019. Thus, Bangladesh cannot undertake a higher commitment of emissions reduction without an increase in financial and technological support from the international community.
Bangladesh recognises that the COP26 is the last opportunity for the international community to deliver on the commitment to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Failure to do so will exacerbate the climate crisis, disproportionately harming developing countries and ensuring that future generations continue to bear the brunt of the devastating consequences of climate change for no fault of their own. As a leader of vulnerable nations, Bangladesh calls for greater commitment, ambitious targets, and solidarity of the global community to make the world sustainable, just, and liveable for future generations.
Author: Dr. Fahmida Khatun, Executive Director, Centre for Policy Dialogue, Bangladesh.