Originally posted in The Daily Star on 15 March 2021
March is a month that carries special significance for Bangladesh. In March 1971, the country got involved in the Liberation War, which continued for nine long months. This war was the culmination of a prolonged movement for emancipation from economic, political and cultural suppression by the then West Pakistan. Thus, the Liberation War was influenced by the ethos to establish a country where the underlying philosophy of development policies were equity and justice. Independence was about achieving democratic rights, economic rights, social rights and cultural rights. The aspirations of the people of Bangladesh have been articulated eloquently in the constitution of the country.
However, Bangladesh’s journey in the post-independence period has not been smooth. It has experienced turmoil in the form of assassinations, coups, counter-coups and military rule. These were coupled with corruption and bad governance. Within three years of Bangladesh’s independence, the Father of the Nation, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was assassinated in August 1975, by a group of junior army officers, in an attempt to overthrow the incumbent government. Following this brutal killing, a sharp division in political ideology began to take root in the country. After a long period of instability and misrule, Bangladesh moved towards a democratic transition through parliamentary elections in 1991.
This transition, however, could not continue uninterrupted as politics could not take a developed and institutional shape and instead became highly confrontational. So, after a few elections, the democratic process faced another blow in the midst of bitter hostility among the dominant political parties in 2006, when transition of power through an election became uncertain. This resulted in the assumption of power by a military-backed non-partisan caretaker government, which took over in January 2007 with the promise to hold a free and fair election. An election was held in December 2008 and Bangladesh Awami League came into power, winning an overwhelming majority. However, the parliament became dysfunctional after the election and political opposition has become weaker over time. Hence, 50 years on, Bangladesh’s political journey is still a “work in progress”.
In terms of the economic situation, in 1971, Bangladesh inherited a poor and undiversified economy. It was predominantly an agricultural economy with low productivity. It had underdeveloped industrial and services sectors, a rapidly growing population and an overall poor infrastructure. Due to decades of British and Pakistani colonial exploitation, the economy was stuck in the vicious cycle of poverty. Low levels of income, savings and investment were resulting in a low growth. On top of this, the war had caused serious damage to the economy.
Despite such unfavourable circumstances and constraints on resources, Bangladesh has made spectacular economic and social progress over the last five decades. For one, the growth rate of its Gross Domestic Production (GDP) has been impressive. On average, the GDP of Bangladesh has risen from about 3 percent in the 1970s to 7 percent in the 2010s, and had crossed 8 percent just before the Covid-19 pandemic set in. Though the pandemic has slowed Bangladesh’s growth, its GDP growth is projected to rise faster than that of other countries. High growth has pushed per capita income upwards by 23 times in 2020, from where it was in 1973.
The characteristics of a modern economy—that is, a graduation from being agriculturally-dependent to growing through the industry and services sector—is also being observed gradually. Currently, the share of agriculture in Bangladesh’s GDP is about 13 percent, while that of industry and services sectors are about 35 percent and 52 percent, respectively. The economy has also been integrated with the global economy. Shares of exports, imports and remittances in GDP have increased over time. Moreover, high imports are possible with the help of impressive remittance flow. On the other hand, dependency on foreign aid to undertake development work has declined by almost half in terms of its share in GDP in 2020 (from that of 1973), indicating a more self-reliant growth effort.
Economic progress has impacted the social lives of the population positively on many counts. By 2016, the share of population below the poverty line had declined from more than 80 percent in the early 1970s to 24.2 percent. Life expectancy has also increased by more than one and a half times since 1973. In a similar vein, maternal mortality has declined by almost four times and child mortality by about five times from what they were in the eighties. And there are many more visible progresses of which we are proud of.
The recognition of such progress has come from several organisations. In February 2021, Bangladesh fulfilled all three criteria to graduate from a least developed country (LDC) to a developing country, for the second time since 2018. The United Nations has recommended Bangladesh’s graduation by 2026. Besides, in 2015, Bangladesh became a lower-middle income country from being a low-income country, according to the World Bank’s classification of countries.
It should be noted, though, that the fruits of all this progress are yet to be distributed equally to each and every member of Bangladeshi society. So, while we rejoice at the achievements we have made since our independence, it is important to remember that we have also let many opportunities pass us by. Despite steady progress in several areas, the promise of an equitable and just society has remained unfulfilled. Income inequality persists as resources and wealth are concentrated amongst a few people in society, many of whom are politically connected. The nexus between politics and business is also strong. As the number of the ultra-rich people is increasing fast, the Gini coefficient that measures the country’s income inequality is also increasing. With the pandemic hitting the economy hard, inequality may have widened in Bangladesh, as is apprehended in many other countries too.
Therefore, the macroeconomic numbers are only a part of the full story. GDP may continue to grow, and per capita income may also rise—but they mean nothing in the end, particularly for those who live on the edge of vulnerability. This is not only because the process of estimating GDP and per capita income are faulty and provides an incomplete picture, but also because, in the absence of major enablers of economic progress (such as participatory development process), growth will continue to suffer from disillusionment. Studies indicate that if political and economic institutions are inclusive and pluralistic, everyone will have incentives to invest and success will follow. However, nations find it difficult to succeed if institutions protect the political and economic interests of only a small group of powerful people.
On the occasion of Bangladesh’s golden jubilee, we celebrate the achievements made by the country with pride. A lot of blood, sweat and tears have gone into Bangladesh’s independence and victory. The sacrifice of our freedom fighters can only be meaningful if tangible change in the lives, particularly of the poorest of common citizens, happens. This requires an inclusive democratic and development process. Participation of the broader section of the population in the economic and political process can make the 50 years of economic progress even more meaningful.
Dr Fahmida Khatun is the Executive Director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue.
Views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of her organisation.