Provisional GDP estimates transmit wrong signal for policymaking

The provisional estimates of GDP failed to capture the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Bangladesh economy in FY2020. The weaknesses in GDP estimation and the dearth of real-time data were exposed through the GDP estimates in the time of pandemic when credible real-time data is critically important. The provisional estimates of GDP should not inform the policymaking in the coming months as it does not provide a realistic assessment of the actual health of the economy.

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) shared these observations in a media briefing under its flagship programme Independent Review of Bangladesh’s Development (IRBD) on 16 August 2020. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) released the provisional estimates of GDP which showed that the country attained a growth rate of 5.24% in FY2019-20. Such a spectacular GDP growth amid COVID-19 pandemic sparked a fresh round of discussions and debates in the economic policy discourse in Bangladesh. The provisional estimates of GDP growth have turned out to be very close to the Ministry of Finance’s prediction of 5.2% presented at the budget time. CPD had earlier estimated that GDP growth in FY2020 will not be more than 2.5%.

Researchers of CPD have urged the government to appreciate the value of data accuracy and integrity. They have emphasised that the policymakers need to acknowledge that credible and up-to-date data provides a strong foundation for sound and effective policymaking. CPD has recommended endowing BBS with adequate financial resources and independence towards enhancing quality and supply of real-time data in order to restore credibility of official data.

CPD has also reiterated its earlier suggestion to constitute an Independent Statistical Commission to guide and steer the transition towards greater data reliability and integrity.

Dr Fahmida Khatun, Executive Director, CPD moderated the media briefing. Mr Towfiqul Islam Khan, Senior Research Fellow made the presentation. Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow and Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Research Director, CPD were also present at the briefing and responded to questions from the journalists.[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]