FY15 Budget: Ambitions in abundance, fiscal framework not in tune

The ambitions set in the proposed National Budget FY2014-15 need to be attuned to the realisation of the budgetary targets, observed discussants during a CPD dialogue on Analysis of the National Budget FY2014-15 held at Lakeshort Hotel on Saturday, 14 June 2014.

(from right) Dr Fahmida Khatun, Dr Akbar Ali Khan, Mr A H M Mustafa Kamal, MP; Professor Rehman Sobhan; Mr M A Mannan; Dr Salehuddin Ahmed and Professor Mustafizur Rahman.
(from left) Dr Fahmida Khatun, Dr Akbar Ali Khan, Mr A H M Mustafa Kamal, MP; Professor Rehman Sobhan; Mr M A Mannan; Dr Salehuddin Ahmed and Professor Mustafizur Rahman.

 

[box title=”Resources” color=”#333333″]An Analysis of the National Budget for FY2015

During the keynote presentation on the detailed analyses of the budget, CPD Research Director Dr Fahmida Khatun highlighted that CPD has iteratively suggested economic reforms and enabling institutional and policy environment to achieve desired macroeconomic performance and budget implementation. CPD also recommended establishing an Independent Statistical Commission to validate the Macroeconomic correlates; setting up an Agriculture Price Commission; a Local Government Financing Commission and a Public Expenditure Review Commission.

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Eminent Economist Dr Akbar Ali Khan, Former Advisor to the Caretaker Government and a Guest of Honour at the dialogue, pointed out the inadequacy of parliamentary discussion on the budget in terms of time and reviewing system and urged reform as required by a Westminster-style democracy. He also opined that Bangladesh’s target to become a middle-income country by 2021 may remain unrealised without establishing good governance, agreeable political climate and addressing infrastructural deficiency.

Guest of Honour Dr Salehuddin Ahmed, Former Governor, Bangladesh Bank, particularly urged the government to complete the incomplete ADP projects related to infrastructure and reinvigorate the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED). He also highlighted major challenges for the government such as sluggish employment creation; increasing inequality and regional disparity in personal income; possible food and non-food inflation hike etc.

Chief Guest Mr A H M Mustafa Kamal, MP, Minister for Planning said the government did well in gradually achieving the revenue targets in previous budgets and will do so in the future. He hoped for future reforms in the National Board of Revenue (NBR) and a more inclusive budget in future to make the economy more sustainable. Among other issues, the Minister particularly emphasised the materialisation of wealth tax.

Special Guest Mr M A Mannan, State Minister for Finance and Planning, felt that the projected 7.3 percent GDP growth rate should not be termed impossible as it might be achieved.

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CPD Distinguished Fellow Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya opined that the expectations centring the ambitious budgetary targets should not exceed the reality of implementations challenges as the budget is subject to critical planning within a precise framework.

CPD Chairman Professor Rehman Sobhan, also moderator of the floor discussion, underscored the necessity of introducing performance-based budgeting in Bangladesh instead of having a hypothetical discussion over the budgetary measures as regards the goals and achievements in the budget.

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During the floor discussion, Dr Shamsul Alam, Member, GED of Planning Commission noted that the FY2015 budget has been made pro-people and pro-poor as revenue target and SSNP allocation were significantly higher for people’s welfare while high volume of import tax was exempted to favour entrepreneurs.

According to Mr Md Tazul Islam, MP, Chair of Parliamentary Standing Committee on Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, the FY2015 budget is ‘implementable’. In reference to the previous budgetary targets, he highlighted the government’s success in enhancing food and energy production; reducing poverty and favouring the private sector with significant investment in the gas sector.

Mr Anis Ud Dowla, Former MCCI President, opined that the budget should have focused more on the agriculture sector as to measures for increasing the produce and ensuring fair price for farmers. He favoured the importance of Bangladesh’s economic performance and enabling political environment over policy measures for drawing foreign investment.

Mr Mir Nasir Hossain, Former FBCCI President, urged the government to expand the tax net and address the weaknesses in tax administration; implement PPP to enhance private investment which is one of the main budgetary challenges.

The floor discussion was also addressed by Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director, CPD; Mr Kazi Akramuddin Ahmed, President, FBCCI; Mr Abdul Mannan Howlader, Member, Socio Economic Infrastructure Division, Planning Commission; Professor Abu Ahmed of Department of Economics, Dhaka University; Dr Hussain Monsur, Chairman, Petrobangla; Mr M Syeduzzaman, Member, CPD Board of Trustees; Ms Taleya Rehman, Founder Executive Director of Democracywatch; Mrs Priti Chakraborty, Chairman, Aysha Memorial Hospital; Mr Siddiqur Rahman Chowdhury, Former Secretary, Finance Division; Mr Mokbul e Elahi, former Director, Petrobangla;  Dr Md Rafiqul Islam Mondal, Director General, BARI; Mr Rezaul Karim Chowdhury, Executive Director, Coast Trust; among others.