Climate change is one of the most critical issues for Bangladesh at present. The damaging impacts of climate change on different sectors of Bangladesh are interrelated and have manifold implications. This paper utilises expectation maximisation algorithms and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict the state of climate change indicators for Bangladesh in the near future. Findings from the forecasts show that in the business-as-usual scenario, annual average temperatures will increase by 0.95 per cent year-on-year, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase 5.17 per cent year-on-year, and a total of 30,366,230 households will be affected by climate change in Bangladesh in 2030. Therefore, anthropogenic climate change is increasing the probability of natural disasters leading to grave consequences for Bangladesh. Hence, the gulf between the rhetoric and reality of climate change needs to be narrowed down urgently. In view of these, a number of policy measures are recommended to tackle the risks of climate change in Bangladesh.
Authors: Fahmida Khatun and Syed Yusuf Saadat
Publication Period: July 2022