Originally posted in The Daily Star on 4 March 2025
Climate change has become intricately linked to geopolitics as the world grapples with rising temperatures, severe weather events, and environmental instability. For the climate-vulnerable least developed and developing countries, the intersection of climate change and geopolitics presents immediate and long-term challenges.
For many years, climate diplomacy focused mainly on environmental concerns, bringing countries together to create agreements to slow climate change. However, political shifts around the world are making it harder to reach these agreements. As the world becomes increasingly divided along political, economic, and ideological lines, these divisions are often reflected in climate negotiations and international cooperation.
Climate change efforts often face resistance from political leaders who focus more on issues like job creation, energy independence, and security. The withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement is a case in point, even though its contribution to global emissions is significant. The EU is trying to balance ambitious climate goals with the economic pressures from its member countries—some of whom depend heavily on fossil fuels, making it difficult for them to support aggressive climate policies. China, the largest producer of greenhouse gases (GHG), is also a key player in global climate actions. While China is investing heavily in renewable energy, it faces challenges due to its growing demand for energy and its strong push for global influence. For instance, China has become a global leader in solar panel production, but its rapid industrial growth still makes it one of the top polluters in the world. The latest available data indicate that in 2021, China’s share of global GHG emissions was the highest at 25.81 percent. In comparison, the US emitted 11.23 percent, and the EU emitted 6.34 percent of total global GHG (Climate Watch).
For climate-vulnerable low-income countries, the challenge of addressing climate change is not just about adapting to its impact and mitigating its effects but also about navigating the increasingly complex web of global geopolitics. In many ways, these countries are on the front lines of a global crisis, bearing the brunt of environmental destruction while simultaneously being marginalised in global decision-making processes. As climate-induced disasters worsen, geopolitical dynamics—such as competition for resources, shifting alliances, and national security concerns—complicate these countries’ ability to secure the support and resources necessary to adapt to and mitigate climate change impacts. As a result, they find it increasingly difficult to pursue sustainable development.
One of the ways geopolitical tensions affect climate change is through competition for resources. Climate change is driving countries to compete for critical resources, such as water, energy, and food, all of which are essential for survival. Countries that are already facing resource scarcity due to climate change, such as those in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, find themselves locked in a struggle for resources that are becoming increasingly limited.
In the case of Bangladesh, the competition for water is particularly critical. The country relies on freshwater flow from rivers like the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna. However, these rivers are shared with neighbouring countries like India and China. Hence, any change in the natural flow of water has significant implications for agriculture, food security, and water supply in Bangladesh. The geopolitical tensions between Bangladesh and its neighbours over shared water resources have the potential to escalate as climate change exacerbates water scarcity.
Additionally, as nations pursue their climate goals, there is a growing tendency to prioritise national interests over global cooperation. These tensions undermine the effectiveness of international climate agreements. For countries like Bangladesh, this fractured global response to climate change is frustrating, as it delays or undermines the support they need to cope with its immediate impacts.
The global push for green technologies and renewable energy also presents both opportunities and challenges for such countries. On the one hand, renewable energy offers a potential solution to their energy needs while reducing reliance on fossil fuels. However, access to clean energy technologies is not equally distributed. Wealthier nations often take the lead in the development and deployment of such technologies. As a result, low-income, vulnerable countries find themselves disadvantaged in securing the technologies they need to transition to a more sustainable and resilient energy system.
Vulnerable countries must focus on both adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the geopolitical environment complicates their efforts in these areas. Adaptation to climate change is a critical priority for Bangladesh, as the country must build resilience to the impacts of rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and other climate-related disasters. The government has implemented various initiatives to address these challenges, including the construction of embankments, flood shelters, and cyclone-resistant infrastructure. However, these efforts require substantial financial investment, which is increasingly difficult to secure due to the complex global political and economic landscape.
International support, particularly from wealthier nations, is vital for the climate adaptation efforts of climate-vulnerable countries, including Bangladesh. However, this support is often slow, inconsistent, and inadequate. The $100 billion annual climate finance target set in 2009 at the 15th meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP15) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen, Denmark, was achieved in 2022—two years after the target year of 2020 (OECD, 2022). At the 29th meeting of COP29 held in Baku, Azerbaijan, in December 2024, a target of $300 billion annually by 2035 was set for developing countries for climate action (UNFCCC). This is insufficient to address the scale of the climate crisis.
Another key challenge is the displacement of people in the least developed and developing countries due to climate change. For example, due to rising sea levels, coastal areas will become increasingly uninhabitable, and millions of Bangladeshis risk losing their homes. The government has plans to relocate people from vulnerable areas to safer regions. However, these efforts are complicated by limited resources and a lack of international support.
As global tensions rise and national interests dominate, climate-vulnerable countries risk being left behind in the struggle for resources and international support. To address these challenges, the global community must prioritise cooperation over competition and work together to ensure that climate-vulnerable countries have the resources and support they need to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Dr Fahmida Khatun is executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Views expressed in this article are the author’s own.