Originally posted in The Daily Star on 10 February 2026
For a long time, manifestos have held little significance in Bangladesh’s political culture. Parties often forgot about them once elections were over, and the public paid little attention. Manifestos have historically been seen as mere formalities, having little influence on voting preferences. But the situation is different for the upcoming 13th parliamentary election. Political parties are making a true effort to present more appealing manifestos, and citizens are also showing increased interest in the promises within.
In this context, we can examine some of the economic pledges made in the election manifestos of the two major parties: Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami. The BNP has pledged to transform Bangladesh into a one-trillion-dollar economy by 2034, while Jamaat has pledged to elevate Bangladesh to a two-trillion-dollar economy by 2040. How realistic are these ambitions?
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Bangladesh’s GDP in the fiscal year 2025 was $461.63 billion. If the country aims to reach a $1 trillion economy by FY2034, the economy would need to more than double over nine years. To achieve this, Bangladesh would require an average annual GDP growth rate of around nine percent over the entire period. This means the economy would have to grow at a much faster pace than in recent years and maintain that momentum consistently.
Reaching a $2 trillion economy by FY2040 as targeted by Jamaat would be even more demanding. Building on the FY2025 base, Bangladesh would require an average annual growth rate of about 10 percent for a prolonged period. However, with such an ambitious target, the party aims for a seven percent growth rate gradually. This is inadequate for reaching the target of a $2 trillion economy by 2040.
It should be noted that sustained double-digit growth has been achieved by only a few countries globally and would demand major improvements in investment, productivity, exports, and overall economic management. Achieving such high growth and sustaining it long-term demands a stable investment environment, technological capacity, skilled human resources, and transparent governance. These are areas where Bangladesh continues to face significant shortcomings.
Private investment hovered at around 24 percent of GDP for about a decade. Then, in FY2025, Bangladesh’s total private investment declined to 22.5 percent of GDP. The growth trajectories of most countries indicate that double-digit growth cannot be sustained without private investment amounting to at least 30-35 percent of GDP. Beyond private investment, several domestic and external factors also play critical roles in GDP growth. Even China, which saw growth momentum for several years, could not sustain it despite having private investment amounting to over 30 percent.
Although neither BNP’s nor Jamaat’s manifesto sets concrete targets for private investment (which is critical for growth and employment generation), both have set targets for foreign direct investment (FDI). BNP aims to raise FDI to 2.5 percent of GDP while Jamaat-e-Islami aims to increase FDI to $15 billion within five years. In FY2025, Bangladesh received FDI of approximately $1.69 billion. So, achieving BNP’s FDI target would require annual FDI inflows of about $25 billion, meaning that FDI would need to grow at a rate of roughly 35 percent per year for nine consecutive years. To fulfil Jamaat’s FDI target, the average annual growth rate of FDI would have to be about 55 percent.
Achieving such rapid growth in FDI would require major improvements in policy certainty, infrastructure, regulatory efficiency, governance, and overall investor confidence. Without deep and sustained reforms, these targets would be very difficult to realise in practice.
Another important area is the tax-to-GDP ratio. Both parties correctly highlighted the need for higher tax revenues to finance development programmes. The BNP has promised to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 15 percent by 2035. The party presents a phase-wise target: a two-percent increase in the short term and a 10-percent increase in the medium term. Jamaat aims to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio to 14 percent. However, there is no timeline for achieving this. To fulfil these targets, both parties will require tough measures. Bangladesh’s tax-to-GDP ratio was only 6.8 percent in FY2025, which is one of the lowest in the world. The National Board of Revenue has consistently missed its revenue targets for several years. Improvement in this area is impossible without institutional reform and good governance. Overcoming entrenched administrative weaknesses, a culture of tax evasion, technological limitations, and corruption will require deep political and institutional reforms.
Some of the social sector targets in the manifestos involve resource allocation and warrant discussion. BNP aims to raise both education and health spending to five percent of GDP within five years. Jamaat aims to raise education spending to six percent of GDP, and health spending to triple over the next five years. Budget allocation for education in FY2026 is about two percent of GDP, and that for health is only 0.75 percent of GDP. To meet BNP’s goal, education spending will have to grow by about 20 percent per year. The greater challenge is the health sector target, as raising spending to five percent of GDP would require an average annual increase of around 46 percent. Meanwhile, Jamaat’s ambition to raise education spending implies that education spending as a share of GDP would need to increase by about 25 percent every year on average. Tripling health spending over the same five-year period also requires an average annual increase of about 25 percent.
One of the most attractive pledges from the BNP is to provide family cards to four crore marginalised families, who will receive Tk 2,000-2,500 per month. Initially, 50 lakh poor rural families will receive this card. However, the central challenge lies in financing such a massive programme. Providing 50 lakh cards would cost Tk 12,000-15,000 crore per year. For four crore family cards, an amount of Tk 96,000-120,000 crore per year will be needed. While this is a much-needed proposal for poverty reduction, it is also a significant fiscal commitment requiring a clear financial plan.
There is also no specific plan in either manifesto addressing Bangladesh’s imminent graduation from the Least Developed Country category in November 2026. This transition will lead to loss of preferential, duty-free access to international markets, and require the country to reduce import tariffs, thereby placing additional pressure on government revenue. It is therefore surprising that the manifestos lack any strategies to manage the risks associated with this crucial structural transition.
When ambition is disconnected from reality, public trust erodes. A manifesto becomes meaningful only when it is realistic, accountable, and aligned with the economy’s real needs.
Dr Fahmida Khatun is an economist and executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). Views expressed in this article are the author’s own.
