Bangladesh must adopt more ambitious commitments and clear implementation mechanism for its power sector under the upcoming Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 3.0. Experts urged that the 30 per cent renewable energy target for 2040 should be made legally binding to provide policy certainty and attract investment. They also stressed the urgency of phasing out fossil fuels, enhancing energy efficiency, mobilising domestic and international climate finance, and ensuring gender and youth inclusion in the energy transition in NDC 3.0.
These recommendations were highlighted at a dialogue organised by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) on 24 August 2025. The event, titled ‘NDC 3.0 for the Power Sector: Is Bangladesh Setting “Ambitious” Targets?’, brought together policymakers, academics, experts, development practitioners, and journalists to discuss how the power sector can play a pivotal role in meeting Bangladesh’s climate commitments.
One of the key messages was the need for stronger implementation, monitoring and accountability framework across the ministries. ‘A robust monitoring mechanism must be part of the NDC framework, so that each sector is accountable for its own progress rather than leaving the entire burden on the Ministry,’ highlighted Dr Fahmida Khanom, Additional Secretary of the Environment Wing, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change.
Investor confidence also emerged as a recurring concern. Dr M. Rezwan Khan, Chairman, Power Grid Bangladesh PLC, warned, ‘Investor confidence in the Power Development Board’s ability to make timely payments is already very low, with defaults occurring frequently. Without addressing these structural and policy weaknesses, the targets set under NDC 3.0 — and eventually NDC 4.0 — risk being unachievable.’
Echoing the importance of coordination, Dr M Asaduzzaman, Former Director General, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), observed, ‘The lack of alignment among ministries and agencies creates uncertainty for private investors and leaves key risks unaddressed. Stronger coordination, greater transparency, and validated data across sectors are essential if Bangladesh is to achieve its NDC commitments.’
The session was moderated by Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Research Director at CPD, and he remarked, ‘As the highest carbon-emitting sector, the power industry must take on greater responsibility under NDC 3.0. Setting ambitious yet achievable targets, backed by clear demand projections, a realistic energy mix, and strong investment mobilisation, will be essential for Bangladesh to align with the Paris Agreement and the 1.5°C goal.’
The keynote presentation was jointly delivered by Ms Helen Mashiyat Preoty, Senior Research Associate, and Mr Mehadi Hasan Shamim, Programme Associate at CPD. The studies reviewed progress on NDC 2.0 and evaluated the optimal fuel mix and investment requirements to meet 2040 targets.
Presenting the findings, Ms Preoty noted that while Bangladesh committed to reducing 48.9 per cent of emissions from the power sector by 2030 under NDC 2.0, progress has been slow due to weak implementation and monitoring process. She emphasised that NDC 3.0 should include an ambitious target for 2035 along with an interim target of 2030 while ensuring methodological rigor in electricity demand projections, and align national policies with international climate commitments. Taking that into account, she proposed that the carbon emission reduction target should be set at 76.9 m. ton for 2030, 91.2 m. ton for 2035 and 103.3 m. ton for 2040. Of which, the unconditional targets are 19.24 m. ton, 22.81 m. ton and 25.83 m. ton respectively for 2030, 2035, 2041. Remaining can be achieved with the conditionalities.
On financing, Mr Shamim highlighted that implementing NDC 3.0 would require substantial investment—estimated at USD 18 billion by 2030 and an additional USD 24 billion by 2040. He stressed the need to diversify financing sources, combining domestic contributions with more than 30 global climate funds, and underscored stronger governance and coordination among the Department of Environment, Power Division, and SREDA.
Government representatives also shared their perspectives. ‘Bangladesh is on track to achieve nearly 9 per cent unconditional emission reduction by 2030, exceeding our original 6.73 per cent target — but none of our conditional targets are being met because developed countries have failed to deliver promised finance and technology,’ said Mr Mirza Shawkat Ali, Director (Climate Change & International Convention), Department of Environment.
From the power sector, Ms Jorifa Khatun, Director, IPP Cell-3, Bangladesh Power Development Board, noted that several renewable projects were already being funded by government agencies, with new solar tenders expected soon. ‘All these issues are being shared with the Department of Environment, which will reflect them in the NDC,’ she added.
Private sector concerns were echoed by Mr Imran Karim, Former President and Director, Bangladesh Independent Power Producers’ Association (BIPPA). He said restoring investor confidence was vital, pointing out that only 55 investors had participated in 40 renewable tenders during the interim government.
The health and social costs of inaction were also stressed. Mr Shaikh Muhammad Mehedi Ahsan, Assistant Professor (Adjunct), Department of Environmental Science and Management (DESM), IUB, said, ‘Reducing emissions is essential for Bangladesh itself, not just to meet international obligations. Some two lakh people die every year in Bangladesh due to air pollution. Many government agencies bypass environmental rules while implementing development projects.’
Ms Tanzina Dilshad, Programme Manager, Environment & Energy, European Union Delegation to Bangladesh, remarked, ‘We must update our NDCs every five years to align with science, technology, and global progress, raising ambition each time. This ambition must also capture industrial contributions — if our industries fail to adopt clean energy, business will shift to competitors like India and Vietnam.’
Other recommendations put forward by CPD included accelerating systemwide transformations through timebound sectoral targets, capacitating SREDA as the Chair of NDC 3.0, strengthening regional power trade, creating a renewable energy financing facility, modernising the national grid with storage and smart technologies, and expanding distributed renewable systems such as rooftop solar, irrigation pumps, and electric vehicle charging hubs. Participants also called for the new NDC to integrate just transition principles, including job creation for women and youth, and reskilling workers from fossil-fuel-based industries.
