Professor Mustafizur Rahman on oil prices, subsidy and BoP

Published in The Daily Star on Friday, 12 December 2014.

BPC may see profits this fiscal year
Credit goes to oil price decline on global markets

Sajjadur Rahman

The government is likely to make profits, for the first time in at least 13 years, from the sale of fuel oil this fiscal year due to declining prices on international markets, officials of state-owned Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation said.

The government will also be able to save crores of taka it spends annually to subsidise oil imports, meaning the country’s balance of payments will be healthier.

“We are making some profits now. If the price remains at this level, we’ll surely make profits at the end of the fiscal year,” BPC Chairman Eunusur Rahman told The Daily Star yesterday.

Import costs of diesel have now dropped more than 30 percent to $80 a barrel, from $120 in June.

The price of furnace oil also came down significantly, to $413 a tonne now from $602 in July. Crude oil price plummeted to a five-year low at $67 a barrel.

According to its website data going back to fiscal 2001-02, the corporation has been incurring losses every year.

In fiscal 2013-14, the BPC’s losses went down to Tk 2,477 crore from Tk 5,368 crore in the previous year. It lost the highest, Tk 10,552 crore, in fiscal 2011-12.

Bangladesh is fully dependent on imports for meeting its demand for petroleum products. The country imported 53.51 lakh tonnes of petroleum products worth Tk 36,587 crore in fiscal 2013-14, according to government data. Of the money, 65 percent was spent on diesel import.

The government has to subsidise petroleum imports to cushion consumers against price shocks. It spent Tk 7,350 crore on petroleum subsidies in 2013-14, down from Tk 13,558 crore in the previous year, according to the finance ministry.

The government also raised the domestic prices of petroleum products by up to 11.47 percent in January last year in the face of increasing losses of the BPC.

“The government had to spend Tk 7 as subsidy for per litre of diesel before October this year. Now we are making Tk 4-Tk 5 profit per litre,” said another senior official of the BPC, asking not to be named.

Prof Mustafizur Rahman, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said the economy is getting the benefits of the falling prices of oil as the government’s spending on subsidy will go down significantly and balance of payments will be healthier. “If people get the price benefits, both the cost of doing business and inflation will fall,” he said. Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of Policy Research Institute, however, said, though consumers are not being benefitted directly, they are getting the protection of price stability.

On the possibility of a cut in prices of petroleum products in the domestic market, a senior official of the energy ministry said they are now watching the price trends.

“If the prices on the global markets continue to remain at the present level, there may be a price cut,” he said, requesting not to be named. Both diesel and kerosene are being sold at Tk 68 per litre, while petrol and octane at Tk 96 a litre and Tk 99 respe