Originally posted in The Business Standard on 2 July 2024
The formulation of the 9th Five-Year Plan has begun, aiming to achieve the country’s target of becoming an upper-middle-income country by 2031. The concept paper identifies 20 major sectors for development.
However, institutional strengthening is crucial to achieving this goal as ministries often fail to meet their targets due to a lack of capacity.
This time, the focus is on urbanisation, agriculture, the financial sector, poverty reduction and investment growth, and the development of education and health sectors. Despite a decrease in poverty, income inequality continues to rise, with no significant progress in addressing it.
The macroeconomic indicators projected in the 8th Five-Year Plan were not met, and the health and education sectors did not receive adequate allocations.
In urbanisation efforts, we are building roads and bridges rapidly, but these measures are not reducing congestion or pollution, nor are they improving the public transport system. We must also ensure sufficient job creation for urban residents.
To become an upper-middle-income country, the primary focus is on increasing income levels, as social indicators are not the key determinants. However, achieving this status by 2031 is not feasible with the current wages and per-capita income.
Ensuring the necessary education and skills to become smart citizens is crucial. This requires advancements in knowledge and technology. Achieving this goal demands not just economic growth, but comprehensive socio-economic development. Without this, the target will remain out of reach.
In the 9th FYP, the government aims to transition from “Digital Bangladesh” to “Smart Bangladesh”. However, the definition and implications of “smart” in this context remain unclear.
Becoming an upper-middle-income country requires substantial investment and the generation of decent employment opportunities. To achieve this, it is essential to increase the value addition of industries and integrate export-oriented industries into the global value chain.
Currently, we export low-cost garments. We must shift to exporting high-value garments, which requires advancements in technology, skills, and investment. Overcoming these challenges will ensure the success of the new Five-Year Plan.
The concept paper emphasises the need for financial sector reforms. For these reforms to be effective, the government will need comprehensive support, not just policies. The good news is that the government has recognised the necessity of reforming the financial sector, including banks, to boost private investments.