Originally posted in The Business Standard on 4 August 2024
Quota protests rooted in deeper economic, political issues: Economists
Economists have stressed that understanding the deeper economic and political issues underlying the quota reform protest is more critical than its economic impact, and that the issue should be addressed politically.
“This movement should be viewed in a larger context,” said Fahmida Khatun, executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, at a webinar on “Carnage in Bangladesh: What Happened? What’s Next?” organised by the Forum for Bangladesh Studies on Saturday.
“The quota movement may seem to have created a series of economic problems, but this problem is economic, political, and social at the same time. As a result, this problem has to be solved politically.”
She said there is a huge opportunity for young workers. However, market management is not properly followed, and policies are crafted in such a way that only a few people benefit. Economic institutions are not strengthened.
“We hear many stories of high growth and social development, but we see that not everyone can enjoy these benefits equally. Political leadership and bureaucrats create a group for themselves, and they influence policies. As a result, there has been an outburst of deprived students,” she added.
The economist also said that some policies in the power sector, ready-made garment sector, and banking sector are designed to benefit only a certain group of people, leaving a large portion of the population deprived.
Due to this austerity policy, the education and health sectors, social protection, and skill development are not given much funding, she added.
Hossain Zillur Rahman, a former adviser to a caretaker government, said the fear of creating a financial crisis in the current situation is not a matter of much concern.
“The agenda of the movement needs to be reviewed in terms of its content and fight. This will serve as our economic game. The reasons behind the problems should be identified. Here, not only quotas, but also issues such as corruption and question leaks have been brought to the fore,” he added.
The economist said the students understand that without reforms, their jobs are not guaranteed. These students took to the streets in 2018 for road reform.
“Today’s movement is due to economic and political deprivation. They have learnt to understand everything. As a result, the content of the student movement and their emotions should be given more importance than the economic challenges in the current situation,” he added.
Jyoti Rahman, director of International Affairs at the Sydney Policy Analysis Centre, said, “The economy we are currently in could collapse at any moment. Production is disrupted. Our economy was small during the mass upheaval of the 1990s, but now the damage could be greater as our economy has grown.”
“A call from the movement could lead to a major collapse in remittance inflows, potentially creating a crisis in foreign reserves. Due to the crisis in the dollar, the local currency will depreciate. Prolonged political unrest will impact reserves and remittances, affecting the exchange rate and inflation,” said the economist.
Jyoti Rahman, director of International Affairs at the Sydney Policy Analysis Centre, said, “The economy we are currently in could collapse in no time. Production is disrupted. Our economy was small during the mass upheaval of the 1990s. But now the damage can be greater as our economy has grown bigger.”
“An urge from the movement could lead to a major collapse in remittance inflows. This may create a crisis in foreign reserves. Due to the crisis in the dollar, the local currency will depreciate. In prolonged political unrest, the effect on reserves and remittances will affect the exchange rate and inflation,” said the economist.