Originally posted in Daily Sun on 5 November 2026
Dhaka eyes steadier US trade, fewer new tariffs
Bangladeshi exporters and economists expect Democratic control of both chambers of the US Congress to make new American tariffs harder to impose and to support export growth in Bangladesh’s largest single-country market.
They caution, however, that the existing 10% duty and a pending US investigation into excess production capacity are unlikely to change soon.
They said the result also signals support for a rules-based global trading system under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) rather than unilateral tariffs, which could benefit Bangladesh’s trade with the US and the wider world.
According to Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) data, Bangladesh’s exports to the US rose 11.51% year on year to $3.35 billion in July-October of FY27, from $3 billion a year earlier. The country’s total exports in the first four month of this fiscal year stood at $7.75 billion.
Bangladesh exported goods worth $48 billion in FY26, with ready-made garments accounting for 80.62%.
‘A positive development’
Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), told Daily Sun the results showed voters wanted change and were dissatisfied with some policies of the Trump administration. How far this would influence US trade policy remained to be seen, he said.
“The bilateral trade agreement between Bangladesh and the United States has been signed, but its ratification and implementation status needs to be considered. In the changed political circumstances, the need to secure congressional support for certain aspects of the agreement may become more challenging,” he said.
He noted that while the US president holds considerable executive authority, Congress plays an important role in trade policy. Certain executive trade measures are time-limited and may need congressional approval or further legislation. With Democrats controlling both chambers, securing support for new trade measures could become harder for the administration, he said.
“I believe this political development could have a positive influence on Bangladesh-US bilateral trade relations in the coming days,” Prof Mustafizur said.
He added that trade and investment do not depend on political decisions alone.
“The overall business environment and Bangladesh’s own competitiveness are equally important. Ultimately, our ability to compete in the global market will determine how much we can benefit.”
He said Bangladesh has considerable potential to expand exports to the US as China’s role in that market has declined, but has been unable to capitalise because of limited product diversification and other policy shortcomings.
Existing duties, investigations remain
Mohiuddin Rubel, founder and CEO of Bangladesh Apparel Voice (BAV) and a former director of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said Democratic control of Congress changes US trade politics but would not alter garment duties soon.
The president can still veto bills, and current tariffs rest on powers Congress delegated years ago, he said.
Bangladeshi goods currently face an additional 10% duty under Section 301, on top of the normal import duty.
This began after the Supreme Court struck down the reciprocal tariffs and the temporary charge expired.
“Exporters should not expect this 10% to go away when planning 2027 orders,” he said.
Mr Rubel identified possible gains. New tariffs would be harder to introduce, since anything requiring Congress would now go to a Democratic majority that campaigned against tariffs.
“If policy becomes steadier, US buyers can plan orders more easily. That helps Bangladesh, since we sell mostly low-priced basic items,” he said.
He expected the duty-free quota for garments made with US cotton and synthetic fibre to remain. The president established it without Congress, it benefits American farmers, and Democrats also want forced labour removed from supply chains. However, it removes only the additional 10%; the normal duty still applies, quantities are limited and it runs for three years.
On shipping, he said that if Congress pushes to calm the Iran war, freight costs may fall. War-risk charges have been $2,000-$4,000 per container.
Among the challenges, Mr Rubel said Democrats would find it hard to oppose a tariff aimed at forced labour, so such a measure was likely to stay.
He expected closer scrutiny of workers’ rights, wages and the origin of Bangladesh’s cotton.
“We lost US GSP in 2013 because of labour problems, and that could matter again,” he said.
If Congress blocks new legislation, the White House may act more on its own, he added. The biggest risk, he said, is the Office of the US Trade Representative’s (USTR) investigation into excess production capacity, which names Bangladesh. Weak US demand and buyers pushing down prices matter more than which party controls Congress, he said.
‘Supply chains to improve’
Mohammad Hasan Arif, vice chairman and chief executive (additional secretary) of the EPB, called the Democrats’ victory “a positive development, reflecting the aspirations of the American people”. He said it indicated voters wanted a change from unilateral tariffs and trade wars.
“The result also signals support for a rules-based global trading system under the WTO, rather than imposing tariffs unilaterally. This could have a positive impact on Bangladesh’s trade with the United States and the rest of the world,” he said.
He cautioned that the situation would not improve overnight, as tariffs and geopolitical conflicts had disrupted supply chains and restoring normal trade flows would take time.
On the bilateral trade agreement, he said it was a government-to-government decision. “A change in congressional control will not automatically alter it. Any changes would require discussions and mutual agreement between the two governments.”
Arif said exports to the US had continued to grow despite tariffs, in the last fiscal year and in the first four months of the current one.
He saw further scope for growth, citing Bangladesh’s garment manufacturing capacity.
If geopolitical tensions ease and supply chains improve, energy supplies could also improve, allowing factories to raise output, he said.
Export diversification remained the main challenge, with the government and private sector working to reduce dependence on a single sector.
Tariff background
The US initially imposed reciprocal tariffs on Bangladesh, with rates proposed at around 37% and later adjusted to 20% following mid-2025 negotiations.
After a federal trade court struck down President Donald Trump’s worldwide reciprocal tariffs and ordered their collection stopped, Washington imposed a 10% tariff on imports from Bangladesh and 17 other countries.
On 9 February 2026, the two countries signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) to restructure bilateral trade and tariff frameworks. It has yet to be ratified.
