GDP growth increased to 4.50 per cent in Q1 FY2026, from 2.58 per cent in Q1 FY2025. This indicates a positive shift in economic momentum at the start of the fiscal year. Sectoral data shows that this improvement was primarily driven by a strong rebound in the industrial sector, with a growth rate of 6.97 per cent (BBS, 2025d). In December 2025, the Asian Development Bank revised Bangladesh’s FY2026 GDP growth forecast downward, stating weaker exports amid subdued global demand and supply disruptions to be the major reason. The downgrade also reflects election-related investment uncertainty, financial sector weaknesses, and the October strike at Chattogram Port, which handles over 90 per cent of the country’s trade (ADB, 2025). Export performance deteriorated during July–December FY2026, registering a negative year-on-year growth of 2.19 per cent, mainly due to a slowdown in RMG exports. Monthly exports also declined by 14.25 per cent year-on-year to USD 3.97 billion for the month of December 2025 (EPB, n.d.). The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) approved 18 development projects worth BDT 16,003 crore on 1 December 2025 prioritising infrastructure, energy, and social rehabilitation initiatives. Among these are two fully government‑funded housing projects aimed at resettling families affected by the July 2024 Anti‑Discrimination Student Movement (Ecnec approves 18 development projects worth over Tk16,000cr, 2025). Headline inflation continued to decline to 8.77 per cent in December 2025, driven by a slowdown in food prices, as food inflation fell to 8.16 per cent. However, the slow pace of decline in non-food inflation, combined with declining wage growth of 8.12 per cent, continues to weaken household purchasing power and reduce real incomes.
Authors: Muntaseer Kamal and Md. Imran Nazir
Senior Editor: Dr Fahmida Khatun
Publication Period: December 2025
