The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Bangladesh’s GDP growth to moderate to 3.5 per cent in FY2027 and warned that growth could fall below 3 per cent over the medium term without decisive reforms. The IMF emphasised the need for stronger revenue mobilisation, greater fiscal space and comprehensive banking-sector reform to support medium-term growth (IMF, 2026). Private-sector credit growth fell to 4.47 per cent in June 2026, marking the lowest growth rate recorded for the month of June in 33 years. The slowdown reflects continued weakness in investment activity and persistent fragility in overall business conditions (Bangladesh Bank, 2026b; Hasan, 2026). Export earnings continued to weaken in July FY2027, with earnings declining by 0.90 per cent compared to the corresponding period of FY2026 (EPB, n.d.). Headline inflation decreased moderately to 8.66 per cent in July 2026, while food inflation also dropped to 8.02 per cent. Non-food inflation remained elevated at 9.20 per cent, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures. Additionally, stagnant wage growth of 8.11 per cent continues to weaken household purchasing power and erode real incomes (BBS, 2026b). Bangladesh Bank reduced the policy rate by 50 basis points to 9.5 per cent on 30 July 2026, shifting towards a more balanced monetary policy stance amid a fragile economic recovery (Bangladesh Bank, 2026c).

Author: Md. Imran Nazir, Programme Associate, CPD 
Series Editor: Dr Fahmida Khatun, Distinguished Fellow, CPD

Publication Period: September 2026